Can You Think Laterally like David Murrin?
Can you see and accept that the American Empire is in rapid decline, that WW3 has already started, and that we will likely lose? - Article #90
In this 14-minute article, The X Project will answer these questions:
I. Why this article now?
II. What are the five stages of empire?
III. What is the difference between lateral and linear thinking?
IV. What does Murrin think of the West vs. East?
V. What is his most provocative prediction?
VI. What is another area of geopolitical significance no one notices?
VII. What role does war play in social evolution?
VIII. What investment strategies make sense under these circumstances?
IX. What does The X Project Guy have to say?
X. Why should you care?
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I. Why this article now?
My subtitle is provocative, but I want to get everyone’s attention. Regardless of it made you feel, please read on. Use your free, single-use “unlock” feature to view the rest of this article that is reserved for paid subscribers.
I heard David Murrin for the first time on The Grant Williams Podcast, to which I am a subscriber, last weekend. Everything David said resonated deeply with me and made perfect sense. Before I go on, take an extra 10 minutes to click on the link embedded in David’s name above and read his full biography.
I wanted to hear more from him and hear it all again, so I dove into every interview with him I could find over this past week, and here are the ones from the past year that I focused on for this article:
David Murrin: Raising The Alarm, Why The Western World Must Change Course or Face Decline on Palisades Gold Radio (October 4, 2024; 7,048 views)
David Murrin - World War and Global Domination! on Northstar Badcharts (July 9, 2024; 2,845 views)
"The West is Under Constant Attack, It's Time to WAKE UP" - David Murrin on The Jay Martin Show (June 8, 2024; 11,765 views)
David Murrin: War Equals Massive Inflation on Palisades Gold Radio (May 23, 2024; 6,259 views)
The World is on the Brink, It’s Time to Start Paying Attention on The Jay Martin Show (April 6, 2024; 35,656 views)
Breaking the Code of History, with David Murrin | The Southbank Interviews on David Murrin’s YouTube Channel (February 28, 2024; 1,847 views)
If David is right, and I believe he probably is or will be, then time is short. Now is the time to take precautions and prepare for what he says is to come, so let’s dive in.
II. What are the five stages of empire?
David Murrin's "Five Stages of Empire" model is the foundation of his geopolitical analysis. These stages—regionalization, expansion, maturity, overextension, and decline—are repeated throughout history by empires that rise, reach their zenith, and ultimately fall. Murrin argues that these stages are universal, applying to all human systems, including tribes, nations, and empires. For example, once a dominant global power, the British Empire expanded through colonization and international trade before becoming overextended, particularly during the two World Wars and eventually declining post-World War II. The same model applies to ancient empires like Rome and modern ones like the United States, which Murrin sees as nearing the final decline stage.
Murrin suggests that the U.S., currently in the fifth stage of empire (decline), faces many typical symptoms of overextension, such as increasing debt, political dysfunction, and military commitments that are harder to sustain. He draws parallels between the U.S. today and the British Empire in the early 20th century, noting that the internal and external pressures on the U.S. are similar to those faced by Britain before its decline. Murrin warns that unless the U.S. significantly adapts, it will face the same fate as previous empires, losing its global influence to rising powers, particularly China.
Murrin sees the rise of China as a clear example of an empire in its expansion phase. Unlike the U.S., which is experiencing relative decline, China is building infrastructure, extending its influence through projects like the Belt and Road Initiative, and strengthening its military. Murrin believes this expansion is natural for a rising empire and that China's assertiveness in regions like the South China Sea and Africa reflects its imperial ambitions. He argues that the competition between a declining empire (the U.S.) and a rising one (China) is a historical inevitability that could lead to significant global conflict if not properly managed.
III. What is the difference between lateral and linear thinking?
Murrin’s distinction between lateral and linear thinking is central to his analysis of leadership, innovation, and societal evolution. Lateral thinkers are creative, adaptable, and capable of thinking outside the box, which is crucial during times of expansion and upheaval. Linear thinkers, on the other hand, are methodical, focused on maintaining order, and essential for periods of stability and growth. According to Murrin, societies and organizations benefit from a balance between lateral and linear thinkers. Still, as empires mature, they often become dominated by linear thinkers who maintain the status quo.
Murrin argues that the dominance of linear thinkers is particularly problematic during periods of decline when empires need innovation and adaptability to respond to new challenges. He uses the example of the U.S., which he believes is currently led by linear thinkers who cannot adapt to the rapidly changing global landscape. In his view, the U.S. political and business leadership is focused on short-term gains, bureaucratic efficiency, and maintaining existing power structures rather than thinking strategically about long-term survival. This failure to adapt could accelerate the U.S.'s decline, as it faces rising powers like China and internal challenges such as political polarization and economic inequality.
Conversely, Murrin sees China’s leadership as more lateral, especially in its strategic thinking and long-term planning. He points to China’s ability to combine authoritarian control with innovative economic and military strategies as evidence of lateral thinking at work. According to Murrin, the Chinese leadership has a clear global vision for expanding its influence. It often uses unconventional methods such as economic investments in Africa and creating military bases on artificial islands in the South China Sea. Murrin believes that the U.S. must rediscover lateral thinking in its leadership if it hopes to compete effectively globally and reverse its decline.
IV. What does Murrin think of the West vs. East?
Murrin's theory of Western decline is rooted in his Five Stages of Empire model, which he applies to individual nations and the broader Western world. He argues that the Western Christian super-empire, which includes powers like Spain, Britain, and the U.S., has reached the final stages of decline. This decline is characterized by economic stagnation, political dysfunction, and a loss of global influence. Murrin believes that the West is suffering from a lack of strategic vision, with leaders focusing more on short-term political gains than long-term survival.
In contrast, Murrin sees Asia, led by China, as rising in global prominence. In his view, China is in the expansion phase of its empire, rapidly building its economic and military capabilities. Murrin points to China's Belt and Road Initiative as an example of its expansionist ambitions. This massive infrastructure project strengthens China's economic ties with other countries and creates a network of influence across Asia, Europe, and Africa. According to Murrin, China is positioning itself as the dominant global power, filling the vacuum left by the declining West.
Murrin warns that the West's inability to recognize and respond to China’s rise is one of our time's most significant strategic failures. He argues that Western leaders are too focused on internal political divisions and short-term economic concerns, leaving them blind to the more substantial geopolitical shifts taking place.
V. What are his most provocative predictions?
One of Murrin's most provocative predictions is the likelihood of a new global conflict— World War III—centered around the competition between the U.S. and China and that it has already started with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He argues that the root of this conflict is not ideological but resource-driven, as major powers vie for control over dwindling natural resources such as oil, water, and rare minerals. Murrin thinks that China’s and Xi’s interpretation of history is such that the only way to secure its future is to achieve total global domination, and that is what they have been planning for and executing flawlessly for the past 25-30 years.
Murrin believes the COVID-19 pandemic was not natural and not an accident but that it came from a Chinese war weapons laboratory. Its strategic imperative was to force the West’s debt levels so extreme that we could not engage in an arms race, and if this is the case, they succeeded brilliantly. Starting in 2020, he thinks they emulated the Nazi’s four-year plan to prepare for war by internalizing their economy and stockpiling resources. China is now at the point that Germany was in 1939, going to war or bust by 1940.
The South China Sea is the primary flashpoint, and Murrin argues that the Chinese have the anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons to initiate a devastating first strike from which we will not be able to recover. We are two to three years away from having weapons capable of countering theirs, and of course, we do not have the manufacturing industrial base to produce them or any weapons needed at scale at this point. As such, he thinks the Chinese will likely initiate such a strike, that it can happen anytime, and that this conflict will likely peak between 2025 and 2027.
VI. What is another area of geopolitical significance no one notices?
Murrin places significant emphasis on Africa's geopolitical importance, a continent he believes will play a crucial role in the future of global power dynamics. Africa is resource-rich, possessing vast reserves of oil, minerals, and rare earth elements critical for modern industries, including technology and defense. Murrin argues that control over these resources will be a crucial determinant of global power in the 21st century, making Africa a strategic battleground for significant powers like China, the U.S., and the European Union.
China, in particular, has recognized Africa’s importance and has been steadily increasing its influence on the continent through economic investments and infrastructure projects, often under the Belt and Road Initiative. Murrin warns that China’s strategy in Africa is not purely financial but also aimed at securing long-term geopolitical advantages. By building roads, railways, and ports, China is laying the groundwork for military and economic dominance, effectively creating client states that are economically dependent on Beijing. In this sense, Africa is becoming a proxy battleground in the more considerable competition between China and the West.
Murrin also criticizes the West’s approach to Africa, arguing that it has been slow to recognize its strategic importance and failed to counter China’s influence effectively. He believes Western nations, particularly the U.S., are too focused on internal issues and neglect their global responsibilities. This failure to engage with Africa not only cedes ground to China but also risks destabilizing regions vital to international security. According to Murrin, Africa has become a stronghold for autocratic powers, further tipping the global balance of power in their favor.
That concludes Section VI. I have hit a new paid subscriber threshold, so you must now be a paid subscriber to view the last four sections:
VII. What role does war play in social evolution?
VIII. What investment strategies make sense under these circumstances?
IX. What does The X Project Guy have to say?
X. Why should you care?
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