The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America
A summary of the book written by Peter Zeihan (2016) - Article #12
I. Why this book, and what’s it about?
In The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America, Peter Zeihan takes readers on an exhilarating journey into a future where the United States, fueled by its energy revolution, steps back from the global stage, reshaping the world order. Zeihan masterfully weaves the threads of geopolitics, energy economics, and technological advancements to paint a vivid picture of a world where America's newfound energy independence dramatically alters its foreign policy priorities. This book is a must-read for anyone seeking to understand the intersection of energy and global politics and the profound implications of America's shifting role.
Zeihan's narrative is grounded in the transformative impact of the shale oil and gas revolution, which he argues has given the United States an unprecedented level of energy self-sufficiency. This shift not only redefines the U.S.'s position in global energy markets but also leads to a significant reevaluation of its strategic interests abroad. Zeihan explores the potential consequences of American disengagement on global security and trade, offering a compelling analysis of how regional powers may respond to a void left by a less interventionist U.S. "The Absent Superpower" is an essential read, providing insightful predictions and analysis crucial for understanding the evolving global landscape in an era of American energy abundance.
II. Who is the author?
According to the book, “Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan is a global energy, demographic and security expert who marries the realities of geography and populations to a deep understanding of how global politics impact markets and economic trends, helping industry leaders navigate today’s complex mix of geopolitical risks and opportunities. With a keen eye toward what will drive tomorrow’s headlines, his irreverent approach transforms topics that are normally dense and heavy into accessible, relevant takeaways for audiences of all types.
Zeihan founded his own firm - Zeihan on Geopolitics - in 2012 in order to provide a select group of clients with direct, custom analytical products. Today those clients represent a vast array of sectors including energy majors, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural interests, universities, and the U.S. Military. Prior to his independent life, Zeihan put in stints at the U.S. Department of State, the DC think tank community, and Stratfor, one of the world’s premier private intelligence companies, where he served as vice president of analysis.”
The X Project previously covered Zeihan’s first book, The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder.
III. How popular is this book?
Here are the book’s rankings on Amazon:
IV. What is one of the top takeaways from the book?
Shifting Geopolitics: The Newfound Energy Independence of the U.S.
In The Absent Superpower, “Part I: Shale New World," presents a transformative narrative centered around the shale revolution and its staggering global implications. This section captures how the United States has unexpectedly become an energy superpower through technological innovation in shale oil and gas extraction. This development is not just an economic triumph; it's a geopolitical game-changer. The U.S. energy boom, largely thanks to fracking technology, has dramatically reduced its dependence on foreign oil, reconfiguring the global energy landscape. This shift is so profound that it has the potential to alter longstanding political alliances, global energy policies, and the very fabric of international trade.
V. What is another top takeaway from the book?
The Retreat of the American Security Guarantee
Zeihan explores the consequences of America's energy independence, leading to a significant shift in its foreign policy. A key takeaway is the gradual retreat of the United States from its role as the global security guarantor. This retreat is not driven by isolationism but by the strategic reorientation due to energy self-sufficiency. The U.S., no longer dependent on Middle Eastern oil, has less incentive to engage in costly geopolitical entanglements in the region. Zeihan compellingly argues that this retreat will create power vacuums, particularly in historically volatile areas like the Middle East and parts of Eastern Europe, potentially leading to increased regional conflicts and instability. This section is crucial for understanding how the changing energy landscape directly impacts global security dynamics.
VI. What is the third top takeaway from the book?
Rising Regional Powers and New Alliances
Another significant takeaway is the rise of regional powers in the wake of American disengagement. Countries like Russia, China, Turkey, and Iran are expected to expand their influence to fill the gaps left by the U.S. Zeihan provides an insightful analysis of how these emerging powers will likely assert their dominance, potentially leading to new alliances and rivalries. This shift towards a multipolar world could result in a more fragmented and unpredictable global order, with regional powers pursuing their agendas. Zeihan's narrative is engaging, offering a detailed look at the potential geopolitical strategies and conflicts that could arise in different parts of the world.
VII. What is the fourth top takeaway from the book?
The Changing Face of Global Trade
Zeihan also delves into the impact of American disengagement on global trade. He predicts a move away from the era of free trade, ushered in and upheld by the U.S., towards more protectionist and regional trade policies. This shift could lead to increased economic fragmentation and the re-emergence of trade barriers, significantly impacting global supply chains and economic growth. Zeihan's analysis is particularly relevant in understanding the financial repercussions of a shift in American foreign policy and its potential to reshape global trade networks.
VIII. What is the fifth top takeaway from the book?
Wars and Economic Realignments
The final key takeaway is the potential for wars and the realignment of global economies. With the U.S. becoming a net energy exporter and reducing its involvement in global energy markets, other energy-rich countries might compete aggressively for market share. Zeihan postulates that this could lead to geopolitical tensions centered around energy resources, impacting global economic stability.
Zeihan suggests three potential wars will occur in three chapters: The Twilight War, The (Next) Gulf War, and The Tanker War.
The Twilight War is Russia’s War with Eastern Europe, starting with Ukraine but eventually with Russia invading ten other countries to its west to reclaim its Soviet borders. Russia had already invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014 (and this book was published in 2016), but Zeihan argued that Russia was entering its “twilight” years demographically and militarily. The window of opportunity for Russia to proceed with its Twilight War would be closing by 2022.
The (Next) Gulf War is the inevitable war between Saudi Arabia and Iran that would occur eventually, given the absence of the U.S. to prevent it, and it would lead to massive disruptions of oil supplies and much higher oil prices. Finally, the Tanker War is a war fought primarily between the four Northeast Asian oil importing countries (NEA4) of Japan, Taiwan, China, and South Korea. Regardless of if or when The (Next) Gulf War occurs, Zeihan argues that these NE Asian countries are at the very end of the supply line for oil, and eventually, oil shortages due to demand continuing to grow faster than supplies will force these countries into a desperate conflict to secure precious oil when we soon get to the point when there is not enough to go around.
IX. What does The X Project Guy have to say?
This is another example of a book written long enough ago, in 2016, that we can now see was reasonably accurate in its predictions. The takeaways above have come mainly true except for two of the three wars. The Twilight War has started remarkably within the time frame that Zeihan said it would. Interestingly, I once heard Zeihan explain in an interview that he had to self-publish this book despite his first book being a best seller because he predicted war. He claimed the publishers told him that countries no longer invade other nations, and no one would buy this book.
Despite the accuracy of broad and general predictions by geopolitical strategists like Zeihan and Friedman, I am not suggesting that we should all believe the specific predictions of specific wars playing out in specific ways.
X. Why should you care?
However, we should all pay attention to and strongly consider the broad and general predictions made by proven geopolitical strategists like Zeihan. In the case of this book, and in addition to the takeaways summarized in the sections above, the overarching takeaway is that energy and oil, in particular, are significant drivers of geopolitics. The X Project will get a lot deeper into energy and oil because it turns out that energy and oil have a lot to do with most of The X Project topics, and what happens with energy and oil can and will impact your life in the future.
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