The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder

A summary of the book written by Peter Zeihan (2014) - Article #7

I. Why this book, and what’s it about?

The Accidental Superpower by Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical analysis that explores how geographical, demographic, and energy trends are reshaping the global landscape, mainly focusing on the United States' role in the world. The book begins by detailing the unique geographical advantages of the United States, such as its extensive river systems and natural resources, which have been pivotal in its rise to superpower status. Zeihan argues that these geographic factors, combined with a favorable demographic profile and energy independence, position the U.S. uniquely and very advantageously on the global stage.

Zeihan also delves into the post-Cold War world order, examining how global stability has mainly been underpinned by American military and economic power. However, he argues that the U.S. is increasingly disengaging from international affairs and focuses on the consequences of this retreat for global trade and security. The book discusses how other countries may struggle to adapt to a new geopolitical reality where American support is no longer a given. Zeihan's analysis is both provocative and insightful, offering a perspective on how the 'accidental' factors of geography and resource availability have shaped the U.S. and the entire world order.

II. Who is the Author

According to Wikipedia, Peter Zeihan was born in 1973 and grew up as the adopted son of educators Jerald and Agnes Zeihan in Marshalltown, Iowa. He graduated from Marshalltown High School in 1992. In 1995, he obtained a BSc in Political Science from what then was Northeast Missouri State University and a postgraduate diploma in Asian studies from the University of Otago (Dunedin, New Zealand) in 1997.

Discouraged by his experiences at the American Embassy in Australia and Susan Eisenhower's think tank, the Center for Political and Strategic Studies, he began working as an analyst for Austin-based geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor in 2000.  Zeihan spent 12 years at Stratfor, eventually rising to vice president.

While still at Stratfor, Zeihan coauthored his first book, A Crucible of Nations, with Lauren Goodrich in 2011. The book discusses the Caucasus region of Eastern Europe.

Zeihan left Stratfor in 2012, founding his consulting firm Zeihan on Geopolitics that same year. His client list grew to include energy companies, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural interests, universities, and other government organizations.

III. How popular is the book?

Here are the book’s rankings on Amazon:

IV. What is one of the top takeaways from the book?

One of the critical conclusions in The Accidental Superpower is the significant geographic advantage the United States holds. Zeihan emphasizes how the U.S. benefits from its extensive river systems, fertile lands, and natural barriers like oceans. These superior geographic factors have facilitated more accessible internal transport, natural defense, and a solid agricultural base, all of which have been instrumental in the country's economic and military dominance and will continue well into the future.

V. What is another top takeaway from the book?

Zeihan discusses the importance of demographic trends in shaping global economic futures. With its relatively stable demographic profile, he points out that the United States is better positioned than countries facing aging populations or population declines.

• Japan: Zeihan discusses Japan as a prime example of a nation grappling with an aging population. Japan has one of the world's highest life expectancies and one of the lowest birth rates, leading to a rapidly aging society and a shrinking workforce.

• Europe: Many European countries, mainly Western and Southern Europe, are highlighted for aging populations. Nations like Germany, Italy, and Spain face demographic challenges with low birth rates and increasing life expectancies, impacting their labor markets and economic growth prospects.

• Russia: Russia is mentioned as facing demographic issues, primarily due to a combination of low birth rates, high mortality rates, and poor health indicators. This demographic trend challenges Russia's long-term economic growth and geopolitical influence.

• China: Zeihan also touches on China, which is experiencing a demographic shift due to its one-child policy (which has since been relaxed). China's aging population could significantly impact its labor force and economic dynamism in the coming decades.

The demographic stability of the U.S. is likely to contribute to sustained economic growth and political stability, while other regions may struggle with the financial burdens of an aging populace.

VI. What is the third top takeaway from the book?

The book highlights the growing energy independence of the United States, mainly due to advances in technology like fracking and renewable energy sources. This shift towards energy self-sufficiency reduces the U.S.'s reliance on unstable regions. It has significant implications for global geopolitics, potentially leading to a reorientation of American foreign policy and international alliances.

VII. What is the fourth top takeaway from the book?

Zeihan argues that the era of robust globalization, primarily supported by the U.S., is ending. He suggests that the U.S. is gradually disengaging from its role as the global policeman and guarantor of free trade. This withdrawal could lead to increased regional conflicts, trade barriers, and a general decline in international stability as other nations struggle to fill the void left by a less internationally engaged U.S.

VIII. What is the fifth top takeaway from the book?

As the fifth major takeaway, The Accidental Superpower predicts a future world order that is less unipolar and more fragmented. With the U.S. stepping back, regional powers like China, Russia, Turkey, and Iran are predicted to assert more influence in their respective areas. This could lead to a more multi-polar world with increased regional tensions and less cooperation on global issues such as climate change and trade. Zeihan's analysis suggests a future where power is more evenly distributed but potentially more volatile due to the absence of a clear global leader.

IX. What does The X Project Guy have to say?

I read The Accidental Superpower five or six years ago (three or four years after it was first published), and it was another book I thoroughly enjoyed reading for several reasons.

First, it is another geopolitical book that stoked my passion for the subject, initially sparked by The Next 100 Years by George Friedman, which I summarized in my fourth article. (As a quick aside, Peter Zeihan worked for George Friedman at StratFor from 2000 to 2012.)

Second, it introduced me to the significance of demographics and the unprecedented challenges many countries will face that I previously had not been aware of or considered.

Third, the topic of energy was introduced from a broad, global, strategic, and geopolitical perspective on which I had yet to previously focus. I have long been interested in commodities, from studying economics in school to my earlier career trading commodity futures for several years. But now I saw how commodities, especially energy and oil, held huge geopolitical significance.

X. Why Should You Care?

You should care about this book because this is another book written long enough ago (nine years in this case) that we have had enough time to see once again that geopolitical analysis can be prescient. As I pointed out in the summary of Friedman’s The Next 100 Years, his first couple of predictions were generally and directionally correct. When you look at takeaways #3, #4, and #5, as summarized above, Zeihan has proven reasonably accurate in his predictions. I would not necessarily recommend reading this book today as Zeihan has written three more recent books that have all made The X Project’s list of top influential books, and they will all be covered in future articles. They all made the list because of this track record of accurate predictions. The United States becoming nearly energy independent, deglobalization and a multi-polar world were far from evident at the end of 2014 when this book was written. We should consider more recent geopolitical analyses from proven analysts like Zeihan.

Another reason you should care about this book is because it paints a very optimistic picture of the United States’ long-term future based on facts and sound geopolitical reasoning. Our geographic advantages are so superior that we are destined to be a bountiful, wealthy, and secure country, no matter how hard we try to mess it all up.

And that brings me to our Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow. This is a time to reflect on our blessings. For me, I am always most grateful for my family, my friends, and my health. Having read Friedman and Zeihan, I am now even more grateful to have been born an American and have a much more profound respect and appreciation for America’s beautiful geography.

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