The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy
The X Project Summary of the book written by Neil Howe and William Strauss (1996) - Article #3
I. Why this book, and what’s it about?
The longer subtitle is What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny. It explores the cyclical nature of history and how it affects a nation's collective mood, culture, and destiny. The authors argue that history is divided into saeculums, or long human lifespans of about 80 to 100 years, each consisting of four distinct phases or turnings lasting 20 to 25 years: a High (spring), an Awakening (summer), an Unraveling (fall), and a Crisis (winter).
These turnings are shaped by the different generational archetypes that emerge in a predictable order: Prophets, Nomads, Heroes, and Artists. The book analyzes the past five Anglo-American saeculums. It makes predictions for the upcoming Fourth Turning, which the authors believe will be a time of great turmoil and transformation that will redefine the nation and its institutions.
II. Who are the authors?
According to Wikipedia, Neil Howe (born October 21, 1951) is an American author and consultant. He is best known for his work with William Strauss on social generations regarding a theorized generational cycle in American history. Howe is currently the managing director of demography at Hedgeye and he is president of Saeculum Research and LifeCourse Associates, consulting companies he founded with Strauss to apply Strauss–Howe generational theory. He is also a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Global Aging Initiative, and a senior advisor to the Concord Coalition.
William Strauss (December 5, 1947 – December 18, 2007) was an American author, playwright, theater director, and lecturer. As an author, he is known for his work with Neil Howe on social generations and for Strauss–Howe generational theory. He is also known as the co-founder and director of the satirical musical theater group the Capitol Steps, and as the co-founder of the Cappies, a critics and awards program for high school theater students.
They coauthored several other books together including Generations (1991), 13th Gen (1993), and Millennials Rising (2000). In 1991, Howe and Strauss coined the term “Millennial Generation.”
III. How popular is the book?
Here are the book’s rankings on Amazon:
IV. What is one of the top takeaways from the book?
Remember that this book was published in December of 1996. It predicts that America is approaching a Fourth Turning, a time of great crisis and transformation, similar to the previous ones that coincided with the American Revolution, the Civil War, the Great Depression, and World War II. The authors expect the Fourth Turning to begin in the early 2000s and climax in the late 2020s, with the potential for war, economic collapse, social unrest, and political upheaval - which at the time in the late 1990s seemed wildly implausible.
V. What is another top takeaway from the book?
The book argues that the Baby Boomers (Prophets) will play a decisive role in the Fourth Turning as they enter elderhood and challenge the established order. Generation X (Nomads) will be the pragmatic and resilient midlife leaders coping with the crisis. Millennials (Heroes) will be the young adults who will fight for a new social contract and civic rebirth. Homelanders (Artists) will be the children who will grow up under the protective shadow of the crisis
VI. What is the third top takeaway from the book?
The book identifies the core values and beliefs of each generational archetype and how they shape the culture and politics of each turning. For example, the Prophets are idealistic and moralistic, the Nomads are pragmatic and individualistic, the Heroes are civic-minded and optimistic, and the Artists are adaptive and pluralistic.
VII. What is the fourth top takeaway from the book?
The book warns that the Fourth Turning will be a time of great danger and uncertainty, as the old order will collapse and a new one will emerge. The authors predict that the crisis will involve a global conflict, a threat to American sovereignty, a constitutional crisis, a terrorist attack, a natural disaster, or a combination of these factors.
VIII. What is the fifth top takeaway from the book?
Finally, the book advises that the Fourth Turning will also be a time of great opportunity and renewal, as the generations will unite to forge a new social contract and civic ethos. The authors suggest that the crisis will inspire a new sense of community, sacrifice, patriotism, and heroism and that the outcome will depend on the choices and actions of the people.
IX. What does The X Project Guy’ have to say?
I have several comments and more for this book than the others. First, this is the oldest book by a dozen years on my list. I read it last year and can’t help but wonder what I may have thought had read it in the late 1990s. It must have seemed pretty far-fetched back then when the economy was growing strongly, globalization was rapidly expanding given the recent collapse of the Soviet Union and China’s recent ascendency into the WTO, America seemed solid and secure, and everyone was talking about Francis Fukuyama’s The End of History and The Last Man.
And then came 9/11, the Great Financial Crisis, economic malaise, Covid 19, social and political extremism, deglobalization, the Russian-Ukraine war, and the late 1990s seem like a distant dream. No one is talking about Francis Fukuyama anymore, and everyone is talking about The Fourth Turning as it broadly describes our current times.
Before reading it, I knew more about this book than any other because almost everyone I follow has mentioned it, the generational theory, and its predictions. Moreover, I heard a least a dozen interviews with Neil Howe before reading the book, so I was very familiar with his theory and its forecasts.
After reading the book, which overwhelms you with supporting evidence going through American and Anglo-Saxon history back to medieval times and the War of the Roses in the 1400s, I see the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory not as a hypothesis but as a law of nature.
One of my life’s tenets is to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Preparing for the worst means anticipating, recognizing, and thinking about potential worst-case scenarios and then actually doing something to mitigate the worst-case outcomes should they occur. The risk of using this approach in life is becoming overly pessimistic. One of the aspects I love about the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory is the inherent optimism embedded in the first turning that always follows a fourth turning. Spring follows winter. Hope follows despair. For things to get better, they first have to get worse to the point of breaking down.
X. Why Should You Care?
In short, you should care because things will worsen before they get better.
How much worse? Well, all fourth turnings were pretty bad in the past, and here are the last three:
1929-1946: Great Depression and World War II
1860-1865: Civil War (the book explains the anomalously short 4th turning)
1773-1794: Revolutionary War
In July of this year, Neil Howe published an updated book called The Fourth Turning is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End. I will provide a summary of that book at some point soon. But something to share now is that the current fourth turning likely started with the Great Financial Crisis. So we probably have another 8-10 years of things worsening before reaching a climax and transitioning into the first turning.
How will things worsen? What are the specific consequences? When will they happen? How will we know when they start happening? Who will those consequences affect? How will they affect all of us - me, my family, my community, my employer, my country, the world? What should we do? Should we be concerned?
YES - you should be concerned.
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