A More Balanced but Still Dangerous View on China
Michael Beckley's Perspective on the Future of Global Power Dynamics - Article #95
In this 14-minute article, The X Project will answer these questions:
I. Why this article now?
II. Is China Rising?
III. What are China’s Constraints and Vulnerabilities?
IV. What is “Peaking Power” Syndrome?
V. What is Happening with Global Economic Integration?
VI. What about the Role of Alliances?
VII. What are Beckley’s Views on Taiwan?
VIII. What are the Long-Term Prospects?
IX. What does The X Project Guy have to say?
X. Why should you care?
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I. Why this article now?
There are two reasons for this article now. The first one goes back to something I said at the beginning of Section X a month ago in “Can You Think Laterally like David Murrin?”:
“Regardless of who you want to be our next President, we should all hope for a landslide in either direction or at least a very clear, decisive, and immediate election victory. I am worried that a contested election would give Xi and Putin an excellent opportunity to attack us. Why? If I were them, that is precisely what I would do.”
Well, we certainly got a very clear, decisive, and immediate election result, removing the immediate risk and opportunity of a power vacuum that I feared might be capitalized upon by Xi and Putin.
The second reason starts with the same article, which suggests that the United States’ global empire is in terminal decline and is being supplanted by China’s rise and inevitable superiority. Other articles that I have written that share a similar view are as follows:
However, right after the last article above summarizing Ray Dalio’s book, I wrote an article that expressed the exact opposite view:
Zeihan dismisses China as any threat primarily based on its demographic destiny, by which China’s population is now expected to decline by half by mid-century. In January, I wrote in that article: “It is hard to argue with the destiny of demographics, and so I find myself leaning toward Zeihan’s position.”
Over the past year, I have leaned away from that position to the other extreme, as presented by Gen. Robert Spaulding and David Murrin. Recognizing the pendulum swing between extremes, I thought this was an excellent time to bring the pendulum back to a more optimistic longer-term view of America that is still fraught with great risk and danger in the near-term, as presented by Michael Beckley.
According to Wikipedia, Beckley “is an American political scientist currently serving as Director of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, associate professor of political science at Tufts University, and a non-resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. His research focuses on great-power competition, US-China relations, alliance building, and US defense policy in East Asia.”
I am summarizing his views from the following YouTube videos:
Michael Beckley on The End of China’s Rise & the Future of Global Order | WORLD KNOWLEDGE FORUM 2024 on the American Enterprise Institute channel (489,310 views Premiered Nov 2, 2024)
U.S.-China Trade War 2.0│Michael Beckley, Robin Niblett on the World Knowledge Forum channel (30,084 views Oct 31, 2024)
Lawfare Daily: Michael Beckley and Arne Westad on the U.S.-China Relationship on the Lawfare channel (527 views Jul 18, 2024)
Here are the top seven themes, conclusions, and takeaways from these presentations, interviews, discussions.
II. Is China Rising?
Beckley argues that China's rise is not merely slowing but reversing. China's economic growth, once seen as unstoppable, has been undermined by structural inefficiencies and mounting debt. For decades, the Chinese economy grew through cheap labor, manufacturing dominance, and integration into global trade. However, declining productivity, inefficiencies in capital allocation, and a rapidly aging workforce signal an economic downturn. Beckley points out that China's reported GDP is inflated, with independent metrics showing a much smaller and shrinking economy relative to the United States.
This economic reversal impacts China's role as the engine of global growth. Beckley emphasizes that China's demographic decline and environmental challenges, such as severe water and soil degradation, exacerbate its economic struggles. As economic growth slows, the social contract that has underpinned the Communist Party's legitimacy—delivering rising living standards—is coming under strain, leading to growing dissatisfaction among the population.
Furthermore, the global implications of China's economic stagnation are profound. Many countries tied their economic fortunes to China's growth. With imports falling and Chinese debt-driven investments drying up, nations like South Korea, Germany, and Brazil feel the pinch. This reversal marks a turning point for China and global economic patterns.
III. What are China’s Constraints and Vulnerabilities?
Geographically, China is encircled by powerful or unstable neighbors, creating a historically insecure environment. Beckley highlights China's precarious position, surrounded by 19 countries, many of which have adversarial histories with Beijing. This geopolitical reality limits China's ability to project power unchallenged and forces it to dedicate significant resources to maintaining internal and border stability.
The U.S.-led network of alliances compounds China's security challenges. Military bases encircle China's periphery, reflecting what Chinese officials have termed "all-around encirclement." Beckley notes the strategic containment posed by these alliances, with countries like Japan, Australia, and India bolstering their defenses against China's expansionist policies.
This geopolitical environment hinders China's ability to translate economic power into geopolitical dominance. For instance, despite military modernization, China's ability to challenge U.S. dominance in critical theaters such as the South China Sea remains constrained. The resource-intensive nature of these efforts only intensifies China's economic vulnerabilities.
IV. What is “Peaking Power” Syndrome?
Beckley introduces the concept of "peaking powers," historical examples of nations whose aggressive policies coincide with economic stagnation. He parallels China's current trajectory and past cases such as Imperial Japan and late 19th-century Russia. These states, faced with declining growth and internal pressures, often turned to external aggression to secure resources and assert dominance.
China's increasing domestic repression, such as the crackdown on dissent and the surveillance state, is indicative of this syndrome. The intensification of nationalism and militarization underscores Beijing's attempt to shore up domestic legitimacy. However, these actions also increase the risk of conflict, particularly in contested regions like Taiwan and the South China Sea.
The peaking power syndrome makes China's actions more unpredictable and aggressive, creating a moment of "maximum danger," according to Beckley. This raises the stakes for the U.S. and its allies, who must navigate a more volatile China while avoiding outright war.
V. What is Happening with Global Economic Integration?
The U.S.-China rivalry is reshaping global economic patterns, and decoupling in strategic sectors is becoming the norm. Beckley notes that the U.S. and its allies increasingly sever ties with China in semiconductors and artificial intelligence areas. This "small yard, high fence" strategy reflects a broader move to contain China's technological ambitions.
China's response to these pressures is equally significant. Initiatives like "Made in China 2025" and focusing on self-sufficiency indicate Beijing's long-term strategy to reduce reliance on Western technology. However, Beckley highlights the inefficiencies and costs associated with this inward turn, suggesting that China's state-led model may struggle to sustain innovation at the level required to compete globally.
The decoupling trend also creates opportunities for countries in the Global South to leverage competition between the U.S. and China. Nations such as India and Brazil may be able to play both sides, capitalizing on economic rivalries without being drawn into the geopolitical fray.
VI. What about the Role of Alliances?
Beckley underscores the importance of alliances in shaping the global response to China's rise. The U.S.-led coalition, comprising NATO, the Quad, and partnerships with countries like South Korea and the Philippines, serves as a counterweight to Chinese ambitions. These alliances enhance military coordination and deepen economic and technological cooperation.
China's actions, such as aggressive moves in the South China Sea and economic coercion against countries like Australia, have inadvertently strengthened these alliances. Beckley points out that Beijing's behavior has unified many nations against it, leading to greater alignment among democratic states.
However, maintaining these alliances requires careful management. The U.S. must balance its leadership role with the diverse interests of its partners, ensuring that they remain committed to countering China's influence while addressing their unique economic and security concerns.
That concludes Section VI. I have hit a new paid subscriber threshold, so you must now be a paid subscriber to view the last four sections:
VII. What are Beckley’s Views on Taiwan?
VIII. What are the Long-Term Prospects?
IX. What does The X Project Guy have to say?
X. Why should you care?
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VII. What are Beckley’s Views on Taiwan?
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