Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World

A summary of the book written by Peter Zeihan (2020) - Article #18

In this 10 min article, The X Project will answer these questions:

• I. Why this book, and what’s it about?

• II. Who is the author?

• III. How popular is the book?

• IV. What is one of the top takeaways from the book?

• V. What is another top takeaway?

• VI. What is the third top takeaway?

• VII. What is the fourth top takeaway?

• VIII. What is the fifth top takeaway?

• IX. What does The X Project Guy have to say?

• X. Why should you care?

I. Why this book, and what’s it about?

In an era where global dynamics are rapidly shifting, "Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World" emerges as a critical lens through which we can discern the future of international relations. Authored by geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan, this book is a clarion call to understand how the fading of American global dominance will create a vacuum that various nations will seek to fill. Zeihan expertly dissects the complexities of geopolitics, economics, and demographics, arguing that the current world order is on the brink of a monumental transformation.

At its core, "Disunited Nations" challenges the reader to rethink the pillars of global stability. Zeihan proposes that the post-World War II order, upheld mainly by American military and economic might, is unraveling. This unraveling will lead to a world where long-standing alliances crumble and new powers emerge. The book is not just about the decline of empires; it's a roadmap to understanding how countries will navigate this uncharted territory, driven by their geographical constraints, demographic trends, and economic ambitions.

II. Who is the author?

According to Amazon, “Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan is a global energy, demographic and security expert.

Zeihan’s worldview marries the realities of geography and populations to a deep understanding of how global politics impact markets and economic trends, helping industry leaders navigate today’s complex mix of geopolitical risks and opportunities. With a keen eye toward what will drive tomorrow’s headlines, his irreverent approach transforms topics that are normally dense and heavy into accessible, relevant takeaways for audiences of all types.

In his career, Zeihan has ranged from working for the US State Department in Australia, to the DC think tank community, to helping develop the analytical models for Stratfor, one of the world’s premier private intelligence companies. Mr. Zeihan founded his own firm -- Zeihan on Geopolitics -- in 2012 in order to provide a select group of clients with direct, custom analytical products. Today those clients represent a vast array of sectors including energy majors, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural interests, universities and the U.S. military.”

The X Project previously covered Zeihan’s first two books, The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder and The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America.

III. How popular is the book?

Here are the book’s rankings on Amazon:

IV. What is one of the top takeaways from the book?

Energy Independence, its Geopolitical Implications, and the End of American Global Hegemony

The book delves into the shifting landscape of energy production and consumption. Zeihan highlights how technological advancements in energy, particularly in the United States, lead to energy independence for some countries and, most notably, the U.S. This shift has significant implications for global geopolitics, as energy has been a key driver of alliances and conflicts.

One of Zeihan's most well-known assertions is the imminent end of the American-led global order. He argues that America's retreat from international affairs will increase instability and conflict. This withdrawal marks a return to a multipolar world where regional powers vie for influence, often at the expense of smaller nations.

These themes are well covered in Zeihan’s first two books.

V. What is another top takeaway?

Geography and Demography as Destiny

A recurring theme in Zeihan's narrative is the importance of geography in shaping national destinies. He underscores how geographic advantages and disadvantages have historically dictated nations' economic and military strategies. In the coming era, these geographical realities will become even more pronounced as countries reassert their regional dominance or struggle for survival.

Zeihan also points to the demographic challenges facing many countries, notably the aging populations in developed nations and the youth bulges in developing ones. These demographic shifts will profoundly impact global labor markets, economic growth, and social stability, reshaping how countries interact globally.

VI. What is the third top takeaway?

The Resurgence of Regional Powers and the Decline of Global Institutions

Zeihan predicts the decline of global institutions like the United Nations and the World Trade Organization as countries turn inward and regional powers assert their influence. This decentralization of power will lead to a more fragmented world, where local dynamics and regional alliances dictate international relations more than global institutions.

VII. What is the fourth top takeaway?

Ten Report Cards of 10 Countries

Chapters four through thirteen of the book cover ten countries and end with a “report card” for each country. This section will provide the report card “outlook” for each of the ten countries.

• China: How to be a Successful Country (which is referring to the past)

  • “Outlook: Only Russia has worse relations with its neighbors. When the Order ends, everything that made China successful will end with it and no one will reach out with a helping hand.”

  • “In a word: Overhyped.”

• Japan: Late Bloomer

  • “Outlook: The Japanese have the capital, navy, technological know-how, and geographic insulation to step into the space left by a retreating United States better than any other regional power. They also don’t have a choice.”

  • “In a word: Jefe.”

• Russia: The Failed Superpower

  • “Outlook: Russia is an aging, insecure, former power determined to make a last stand before it is incapable of doing so. American disengagement from the global scene couldn’t have come at a better time, but the reactivation of Russia’s traditional local foes couldn’t have come at a worse one.”

  • “In a word: Panicked.”

• Germany: Superpower, backfired

  • “Outlook: Few countries are more dependent on the American-led global Order. Germany’s best backup plan - the European Union - is already falling apart. Germany needs a new way of doing things. Or an old one.”

  • “In a word: Outdated.”

• France: Desperately Seeking Dominance

  • “Outlook: France is rarely number one, but it is almost always in the top five. When France’s neighbors struggle - as they are now - French power naturally rises.”

  • “In a word: Finally!”

• Iran: The Ancient Superpower

  • “Outlook: Cast in the role of troublemaker for four decades, Iran has recently experienced mammoth success in disrupting its foes. Now that Iran has more or less won regional leadership, it is woefully ill prepared to protect its gains.”

  • “In a word: Winner?”

• Saudi Arabia: The Anti-Power and the Destruction of the Middle East

  • “Outlook: Saudi Arabia is in the rare position of having the money, military equipment, and the will to position itself as a legitimate counterweight to Iran in a region long defined by American (mis)management.”

  • “In a word: Arsonist.”

• Turkey: The Awakening Superpower

  • “Outlook: Turkey will always be smack dab in the middle of everything. It’s relationships with outside powers may wax and wane, but it will always be the economic and military heavyweight of its region.”

  • “In a word: Returned.”

• Brazil: Sunset Approaches

  • “Outlook: Brazil owes its modern existence to globalization and the Order. Without the foreign capital to fuel its infrastructure and agricultural sector, without safe transport to send its beef and soy to customers around the world, Brazil will struggle to maintain its economy on its own.”

  • “In a word: Nuts.”

• Argentina: The Politics of Self-Destruction

  • “Outlook: Once a political ideology more conducive to… sanity takes hold, Argentina has everything it needs to dominate its neighborhood.

  • “In a word: Mulligan.”

VIII. What is the fifth top takeaway?

The United States’ Report Card: The Detached Superpower

• “Borders: Lakes, mountains, forests, deserts, and vast ocean moats surrounding the best agricultural lands and largest waterway network on the planet. Nowhere else on Earth does a territory have such a beneficial balance of good lands with standoff distance. Americans spend little on territorial defense, freeing their military to project out.

• Resources: Nearly two centuries of industrialization have heavily tapped out a continent of bounty, but new technological breakthroughs continue to surprise. The most recent surprise - the shale revolution - has made the country a net oil and natural gas exporter.

• Demography: The American Baby Boomers - the country’s largest generation ever - are nearing mass retirement, generating a painful financial crunch. But American Boomers had kids. Lots of them. America’s Millennials may be a pain, but their numbers may just save us all. *gulp*

• Military Might: The most powerful projection-based military in world history. With the Order ending, it has…. nothing to do.

• Economy: The American economy isn’t simply the world’s largest and most diversified economic system; it is the least dependent upon the outside world for its health. The world needs the American economy to survive, not vice versa.

• Outlook: The Americans excel at missing opportunities due to domestic squabbling, but there is nothing in what’s left of the international system that will threaten the American heartland either militarily or economically before 2050.

• In a word: Detached.”

IX. What does The X Project Guy have to say?

I LOVE being an American! This is another book that fills me with long-term optimism despite the challenges and painful dislocations we are likely to experience in the short to medium term.

X. Why should you care?

This is the third Peter Zeihan book The X Project covered, and there is one more on the list. For several reasons, all four of his books made The X Project’s most influential list. As stated in the summaries of his first two books, they were written long enough ago that we can already see how prescient he is. Secondly, as the various bios from all three summaries state, he is highly influential with businesses, governments, and militaries. So, it is strategically beneficial to know what those entities are hearing when they hire Zeihan to consult or speak. And thirdly, his YouTube channel has 680,000 subscribers, and his videos routinely get a few hundred thousand views, which adds to his credibility.

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