Doom or Boom?

Doomberg's Energy Outlook - Article #99

In this 14-minute article, The X Project will answer these questions:

• I. Why this article now?

• II. What is the Geopolitical Impact and Outlook for Energy?

• III. How is the Energy Landscape Shifting?

• IV. How is AI Contributing to the Energy Landscape Shift?

• V. What About the Future of Global Oil Production?

• VI. What is China’s Energy Strategy and Its Global Implications?

• VII. What Can We Expect from Trump’s Energy Policies?

• VIII. What are the Most Compelling Technological Innovations on the Horizon?

• IX. What does The X Project Guy have to say?

• X. Why should you care?

Reminder for readers and listeners: nothing The X Project writes or says should be considered investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell securities or investment products. Everything written and said is for informational purposes only, and you should do your own research and due diligence. It would be best to discuss with an investment advisor before making any investments or changes to your investments based on any information provided by The X Project.

I. Why this article now?

Doomberg

is one of the analysts I follow most regularly and consistently, yet I have only written about Doomberg twice in nearly 100 articles over the past thirteen and a half months. Doomberg is an independent, widely distributed publication on the Substack platform. It delivers concise, entertaining, provocative energy, finance, and geopolitics articles. The publication is known for its honest and intelligent analysis, often providing a refreshing twist on complex topics.

Doomberg was started in May 2021 by a small team of anonymous entrepreneurs with extensive experience in heavy industry, private equity, and the hard sciences. The goal was to offer a practical voice missing in traditional media. They adopted a green chicken as their avatar.

I first wrote about Doomberg a year ago in “Navigating the Tides of Black Gold: Exploring the Bullish and Bearish Perspectives in the Crude Oil Market,” in which Doomberg took the bearish case (and a year later proved correct.) Six months ago, I wrote “Economic and Geopolitical Vulnerabilities: Doomberg's Insightful Analyses of Western Strategic Missteps.” Six months later, Doomberg appears as prescient as ever. And so now, as we begin another year, it is a good time to check in with Doomberg for their energy outlook.

The X Project exists for people who do not have the time or the interest in The X Project subjects to consume as much content as I do. The X Project curates, summarizes, distills, and synthesizes knowledge & learning at the interseXion of economics, geopolitics, money, interest rates, debts, deficits, energy, commodities, demographics, & markets - helping you know what you need to know.

This article is based on several Doomberg articles over the past few months and these recent interviews found on YouTube:

• The TRUTH Behind the US Annexing Canada and Greenland on CapitalCosm (December 31, 2024, with 32,165 views)

• Trump’s Master Plan To ‘Cripple’ Putin: What Happens To Economy, Oil | Doomberg on David Lin (December 30, 2024, with 114,191 views)

• Doomberg Exposes the Energy Crisis: Trump, China & Peak Shale! on In it to Win it (December 17, 2024, with 23,386 views)

• Doomberg: The Vengeful Return of the Pendulum - Geopolitical Shifts on Palisades Gold Radio (December 4, 2024, with 18,876 views)

• Doomberg: Trump, Energy Policy & Geopolitical Chaos on Raise Your Average (November 19, 2024, with 29,552 views)

Below is a synthesized summary of the top seven insights, themes, conclusions, and takeaways from these Doomberg articles and interviews, plus my additional thoughts and why you should care.

II. What is the Geopolitical Impact and Outlook for Energy?

One of the most pressing themes highlighted across the interviews is the intricate relationship between global geopolitical stability and energy market fluctuations. The discussions emphasized that geopolitical maneuvers often influence oil prices more than pure supply-demand dynamics. For instance, the interplay between Middle Eastern tensions and Donald Trump's inauguration as U.S. President was analyzed, demonstrating how markets anticipate and price political risks. Despite ongoing conflicts, such as Israel’s strikes in Yemen, oil markets remained relatively calm, signaling a maturity in how they handle regional volatility.

The interviews suggest that this stability may be temporary. The Middle East remains a focal point for energy markets, with chokepoints like the Red Sea being potential flashpoints. Additionally, the increasing involvement of superpowers in regional conflicts could exacerbate instability. Doomberg noted that markets may underestimate the risk of significant disruptions, especially as political tensions escalate. The alignment of state actors like China, Russia, and Iran further complicates the geopolitical chessboard, potentially creating unexpected alliances or conflicts. This highlights the critical importance of policy foresight, diplomatic engagement, and strategic resource management in mitigating geopolitical risks and ensuring energy market stability.

III. How is the Energy Landscape Shifting?

The evolving energy landscape is a recurring topic in the interviews, particularly the shift from traditional oil to alternative sources like natural gas. Doomberg pointed out that while oil remains essential, the global energy mix is diversifying, with natural gas emerging as a key player. The transition from diesel to liquefied natural gas (LNG) for long-haul trucking in China exemplifies this shift. Such moves indicate a broader trend towards cleaner, more efficient energy sources.

Both economic and environmental considerations drive this transformation. For instance, LNG’s abundance and affordability make it an attractive option, particularly in regions like North America, where natural gas is extracted as a byproduct of oil production. Moreover, the environmental benefits of LNG, such as reduced particulate emissions compared to diesel, align with global efforts to combat climate change. In addition to trucking, natural gas is becoming integral in power generation and industrial applications. The development of LNG terminals and pipelines further facilitates this transition, enabling countries to reduce dependency on coal and oil. This underscores the importance of flexible infrastructure, adaptive policies, and international cooperation to accommodate these shifts and foster sustainable energy systems.

IV. How is AI Contributing to the Energy Landscape Shift?

Natural gas’s role extends beyond traditional energy uses, positioning itself as a bridge fuel for emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI). Doomberg highlighted how AI-driven industries require significant energy resources, and natural gas’s reliability and scalability make it a preferred choice. Unlike nuclear energy, which requires long lead times for plant construction, natural gas plants can be deployed relatively quickly to meet rising demand.

The interviews also touched on the economics of natural gas. Its current low prices provide a competitive edge for industries in the U.S., fostering economic growth and technological advancement. This trend is particularly significant as AI and data centers become increasingly energy-intensive. Natural gas’s ability to provide on-demand energy ensures uninterrupted operations for these critical technologies. Furthermore, Doomberg emphasized the potential for distributed energy systems powered by natural gas, where localized plants reduce grid dependency and enhance energy security. These factors underline natural gas’s strategic value in bridging current energy needs with future technological demands, ensuring infrastructure keeps pace with innovation.

V. What About the Future of Global Oil Production?

Another central theme was the sustainability of global oil production. Doomberg challenged the notion of “peak oil” by emphasizing the political, rather than geological, limitations on oil extraction. For instance, Venezuela’s underutilized reserves, constrained by political instability, highlight the untapped potential of global hydrocarbons. Similarly, regions like California, which possess significant reserves but face political opposition to extraction, illustrate the disparity between availability and accessibility.

This insight aligns with broader critiques of energy policies that restrict development in resource-rich regions. Doomberg’s perspective underscores the need for balanced policies encouraging exploration while addressing environmental concerns. Furthermore, the interviews highlighted the role of technological advancements, such as hydraulic fracturing and enhanced oil recovery, in extending the lifespan of oil fields. These innovations not only increase extraction efficiency but also reduce environmental impact. As geopolitical and market conditions evolve, global oil production will likely depend on policy reforms, technological breakthroughs, and strategic international partnerships.

VI. What is China’s Energy Strategy and Its Global Implications?

China’s strategic approach to energy emerged as a critical topic, particularly its efforts to secure long-term energy independence. The interviews explored China’s natural gas investments and shift toward alternative energy sources. For instance, the country’s growing reliance on natural gas for transportation demonstrates its commitment to reducing pollution and diversifying its energy portfolio.

Moreover, Doomberg highlighted the geopolitical implications of China’s energy policies, such as its potential to greenlight the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. This move would redirect Russian natural gas flows from Europe to China, reshaping global trade dynamics and potentially isolating Europe. Beyond natural gas, China’s aggressive investments in renewable energy and critical mineral supply chains underscore its long-term strategy to dominate global energy markets. This comprehensive approach positions China as an energy consumer and a major player in shaping global energy policies. These developments underscore the interconnected nature of energy markets and the geopolitical strategies underpinning them, raising questions about global dependencies and competitive dynamics.

That concludes Section VI. I have hit a new paid subscriber threshold, so you must now be a paid subscriber to view the last four sections:

• VII. What Can We Expect from Trump’s Energy Policies?

• VIII. What are the Most Compelling Technological Innovations on the Horizon?

• IX. What does The X Project Guy have to say?

• X. Why should you care?

If you haven’t done so already, use your free, single-use “unlock” feature to view the rest of this article.

The X Project’s articles always have ten sections. Soon, after a few more articles, the paywall will move up again within the article so that only paid subscribers will see the last five sections, or rather, free subscribers will only see the first Five sections. Please consider a paid subscription.

All paid subscriptions come with a free 14-day trial; you can cancel anytime. Every month, for just the cost of two cups of coffee, The X Project will deliver a weekly article every Sunday, helping you know in a couple of hours of your time per month what you need to know about our changing world at the interseXion of commodities, demographics, economics, energy, geopolitics, government debt & deficits, interest rates, markets, and money.

You can also earn free paid subscription months by referring your friends. If your referrals sign up for a FREE subscription, you get one month of free paid subscription for one referral, six months of free paid subscription for three referrals, and twelve months of free paid subscription for five referrals. Please refer your friends!

VII. What Can We Expect from Trump’s Energy Policies?