The Capital Rotation Event is Almost Here

Revisiting the Technical Analysis of Northstar & Badcharts - Article #129

In this 12-minute article, The X Project will answer these questions:

I. Why this article now?

II. What does their technical analysis say about stock markets?

III. What does their technical analysis say about silver?

IV. Gold and silver miners?

V. Uranium miners?

VI. Oil?

VII. Bond yields?

VIII. Bitcoin?

IX. What does The X Project Guy have to say?

X. Why should you care?

However, this article contains a couple dozen charts that you will probably want to spend a least a few minutes studying each one.

Reminder for readers and listeners: nothing The X Project writes or says should be considered investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell securities or investment products. Everything written and said is for informational purposes only, and you should do your own research and due diligence. It is recommended to consult with an investment advisor before making any investments or changes to your investments based on information provided by The X Project.

I. Why this article now?

Last week in “Navigating Uncharted Territory,” I wrote about “Gold's Historical Rise and How Long It Can Continue.” In Section VIII of that article, I highlighted the technical analysis of Northstarbadcharts.com, of which I am a paid subscriber. However, these guys a fairly profilic and open with posting a lot of their work for free on X @NorthstarCharts and @badcharts1 . I first introduced their work in these articles:

• “CAPITAL ROTATION: A visual article of X posts and charts from the guys at Northstarbadcharts.com”

• “Has the Capital Rotation Event Has Arrived? Are your ready for something similar to 1930, 1972 and 2002?”

It would be good to review those articles and see what their charts show then vs. what has happened since and what we know now.

In any event, with two trading days left in the quarter and before the quarterly charts close out their current bar, this is a great time to revisit their work not only as it relates to the capital rotation event that they predict, but also many of the markets and positions aligned with the investment themes to which I subscribe.

As the table above shows, we are simply awaiting final confirmation of the capital rotation event, in which capital rotates out of broader stock markets and into precious metals and other physical, hard-asset, commodities.

II. What does their technical analysis say about stock markets?

“Dow versus gold - Unless this reverses dramatically by Tuesday, it's done, beyond debate.”

“2025 So far…”

“If/when we break below the possible 'event' line, it's going to be interesting to see if we get a geopolitical/market 'plunging' backstory to go with it.”

“Gold versus the Dow Jones is in full capital rotation mode. The only missing piece now is a major stock market drop. There is no confirmed CRE until that happens.”

“Your financial future depends on you understanding what this chart is telling you.”

III. What does their technical analysis say about silver?

“We are close to a very RARE and HISTORICAL event.

This would be only the 2nd time in over 125 years that we get a "SUPER" Capital Rotation Event.

Stock markets get destroyed when adjusted for inflation...

While gold, silver and friends enjoy their BEST years of outperformance!”

“If this is a 'super CRE', and plays out like the last one, silver could theoretically move a good deal higher before the next major correction. Stock markets may hold up for longer as well. Wow, this is getting tricky, but one way or another, it is a capital rotation event we're witnessing.”

“Silver”

“My longer term roadmap for silver reached the first $42 target.

Was $22 back when I annotated this chart in late January 2024, over 20 months ago.

Yes, this chart shows some very bullish roadmaps for silver with targets up to $500/oz!”

IV. Gold and silver miners?

“Gold & silver miners - A correction (even a large one) shouldn't alter the fact they're in a bull market with very large gains ahead.”

“Gold & silver miners - everyone imagines the black arrow, and yet 30-50% corrections are normal in bull markets. We're closer to a large correction than the last ideal entry point right now. Position for the long run & accept this, or wait for the next low-risk entry.”

“My comments come from objective & unbiased analysis.

I built this detailed long-term roadmap for the gold and silver miners to help you.

BULL MARKET still intact.

LOW risk entries are NOT found here.

Important CORRECTIONS can be found here, but has NOT STARTED YET.”

“HECLA - THIS IS HISTORIC. Symptomatic of the entire precious metals mining space right now.”

V. Uranium miners?

“We advised that the long term uranium bull market was starting back in 2020/2021. Our trend-based alert system contains Cameco, which has moved from $16 to $86 since its buy signal.”

“Uranium miners - I've been posting this chart for you for 5 years now. The arc target has always remained the same, and I have no reason to doubt it now. I hope some of you found this roadmap helpful.”

VI. Oil?

“If you are bullish on silver and gold, then you have to be bullish on oil.

Oil should go much higher.

Not if, but when!”

“The road map for $300 crude oil.”

“WOW !!!

You won't see too many of these crazy chart patterns out in your lifetime!

Don't take my word for it, just check out the monthly chart for Shell Oil below...”

VII. Bond yields?

“With rates near zero, many doubted my projections of 5%. I'm sure many will now doubt my projections of 10%. This is where the market wants to go. Everything that unfolds from here is as a result of attempts to stop it collapsing the house of cards. Plausible deniability & distraction.”

“It all makes sense now...here's the backfilled recession.”

VIII. Bitcoin?

“Bitcoin has lost it's all-time support versus silver. Silver appears to be entering a technical bull market versus Bitcoin.”

“The forces of capital rotation have been preventing Bitcoin from outperforming gold throughout 2025. It's now down almost 30% against gold this year. That should not happen at this stage in a Bitcoin bull market.”

“The Bitcoin breakdown versus NASDAQ doesn't look healthy. Needs to reverse soon to avoid major problems.”

“Yes, here is another Bitcoin "DOOM" dome !!!

This time priced in gold, on the weekly time frame.

I added a plethora of annotations... Just so the trolls can't come back later and say that the analysis was wrong.

Take your time to read properly.”

IX. What does The X Project Guy have to say?

First, I have been trading and studying charts and technical analysis for thirty years. I discovered these guys a couple of years ago, and they were the first ones I came across that advocated for using logarithmic scales. They argue that logarithmic scales are superior for market price analysis because they represent price changes as percentages, providing a proportional view that accurately reflects performance over time, unlike linear scales which emphasize absolute dollar amounts. This percentage-based approach reveals long-term trends and growth rates more clearly, allows for accurate, consistent trendlines, and provides equal visual weight to different-magnitude percentage moves (e.g., a $10 to $20 gain is the same visual distance as a $1,000 to $2,000 gain).

Secondly, it is because of their charts and analysis above that I currently do not own any Bitcoin. I have continuously stated that I believe in being long Bitcoin as a long-term investment thesis, and I do believe that. I have made some good money, approximately quadrupling my Bitcoin account, by buying and trading the long side. But I also am a trader at heart, and it is hard for me to just sit on positions when they are not moving or moving against me. I will note that I have successfully been able to do that with gold and with gold miners over the last few years as I accumulated my positions. Anyway, it is the Bitcoin charts above that keep me currently on the sidelines as I do believe there is a significant equity market correction coming, and I think Bitcoin will break down with tech stocks, at least initially, and I will be ready to acccumulate then.

Lastly, no one has a perfect track record in trading or investing. I follow these guys because I have seen then to be correct almost always, but here is the chart from August 2024 that caused me to take my profits, and then I simpy wasn’t ready when the breakout to the upside did occur.

“I think we can now agree that the Bitcoin Doom Dome is real. BTC fell 30% after touching it. Please read the labels on the chart before making any silly comments.”

X. Why should you care?

My portfolio based on the investment themes to which I subscribe was up 5% last week. As I covered in more detail in last week’s article, gold is by far my largest position with gold and silver miners next.

Aside from currently having no position in Bitcoin, I should also note that I have several December puts on XLK, the technology sector SPDR fund. I also have a November put on GDX, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, and I will probably add to both if the market makes new highs in the next week or so. These are short-term speculative trading positions, and I am ok losing all my money on them. They do not change my long-term investment theses, which are as folllows:

• Overweight cash and short-term U.S. T-bills for optionality, given expected INCREASING volatility related to the remaining list below.

• Bullish gold and gold miner equities

• Bullish Bitcoin

• Bullish oil and oil-related equities

• Bullish natural gas and related equities

• Bullish uranium and related equities

• Bullish industrial-associated commodities and equities

• Bullish agricultural-associated commodities and equities

• Bullish industrial and primarily electrical infrastructure equities

• Bearish long-dated U.S. and other Western sovereign bonds

I’m sure you care, like I do, for the well-being of your family, friends, neighbors, and colleagues. And I’m sure, like me, many of those people you care about don’t understand and probably don’t care about economics, geopolitics, money, interest rates, debts, deficits, energy, commodities, demographics, & markets. However, I would appreciate it if you could share my articles that curate, summarize, distill, and synthesize knowledge & learning at the intersection of these topics to help me reach more people and expand my audience, helping people know what they need to know. Things are going to get messy and more stressful soon.

Please note that this is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or investment products. Everything written and said is for informational purposes only, and you should do your own research and due diligence. It is recommended that you consult with an investment advisor before making any investments or changes to your investments based on the information provided by The X Project.

Thank you for your subscription, especially if you are a paying subscriber. Your support is everything to The X Project and is greatly appreciated. If you agree, please take a moment to hit the like button and share your positive comments about my articles, assuming you have something constructive to say.