The Fourth Turning is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End

A summary of the book written by Neil Howe (2023) - Article #36

In this 15-minute article, The X Project will answer these ten questions:

• I. Why this book, and what’s it about?

• II. Who is the author?

• III. How popular is the book?

• IV - VIII. What are the top five takeaways from the book?

• IX. What does The X Project Guy have to say?

• X. Why should you care?

Reminder for readers and listeners: nothing The X Project writes or says should be considered investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell securities or investment products. Everything written and said is for informational purposes only, and you should do your own research and due diligence. It would be best to discuss with an investment advisor before making any investments or changes to your investments based on any information provided by The X Project.

I. Why this book, and what’s it about?

In an era teeming with uncertainty and rapid transformations, Neil Howe's latest literary endeavor, The Fourth Turning is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End, emerges as a beacon of insight, compelling readers to reassess their understanding of historical cycles. Published in 2023, this groundbreaking book builds upon Howe's prescient theories of generational dynamics and societal change, offering a profound analysis of the patterns that have shaped humanity's past and will inevitably forge its future. For anyone intrigued by the forces that drive societal evolution, this book serves not merely as a reading choice but as a crucial lens through which to view the unfolding of our times.

At its core, The Fourth Turning is Here delves into the cyclical theory of history, proposing that society undergoes predictable cycles every eighty to a hundred years, each culminating in a crisis or "Fourth Turning" that redefines the social and political fabric of the era. Howe meticulously traces the footprints of these cycles through history, illustrating how each turning paves the way for the next in a perpetual dance of rebirth and destruction.

Why this book now, you might ask? It provides a lens through which to interpret the tumultuous events unfolding around us today, from extreme income inequality to social polarization to political discontent. Howe's analysis offers comfort in its assertion that while crises are inevitable, they are also opportunities for profound renewal and growth. By understanding the patterns that have led us here, we can navigate the storm with greater foresight and purpose, making The Fourth Turning is Here an essential guide for the times we live in.

II. Who is the author?

According to Wikipedia, Neil Howe (born October 21, 1951) is an American author and consultant. He is best known for his work with William Strauss on social generations regarding a theorized generational cycle in American history. Howe is currently the managing director of demography at Hedgeye, and he is president of Saeculum Research and LifeCourse Associates, consulting companies he founded with Strauss to apply Strauss–Howe generational theory. He is also a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Global Aging Initiative and a senior advisor to the Concord Coalition.

Howe was born in Santa Monica, California. He attended high school in Palo Alto, California, and earned a BA in English Literature at UC Berkeley in 1972. He studied abroad in France and Germany and later earned graduate degrees in economics (MA, 1978) and history (MPhil, 1979) from Yale University.

After receiving his degrees, Howe worked in Washington, D.C., as a public policy consultant on global aging, long-term fiscal policy, and migration. His positions have included advisor on public policy to the Blackstone Group, policy advisor to the Concord Coalition, and senior associate for the Global Aging Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

During the 1990s, Howe developed a second career as an author, historian, and pop sociologist, examining how generational differences shape attitudes, behaviors, and the course of history. He has since written nine books on social generations, mostly with William Strauss. In 1997, Strauss and Howe founded LifeCourse Associates, a publishing, speaking, and consulting company built on their generational theory. As president of LifeCourse, Howe currently provides marketing, personnel, and government affairs consulting to corporate and nonprofit clients and writes and speaks about the collective personalities of today's generations.

III. How popular is the book?

Here are the book’s rankings on Amazon:

IV. What is one of the top takeaways from the book?

The Inevitability of Crisis and Renewal

Neil Howe's exploration into the cyclical nature of societal evolution presents the concept of crisis and renewal not just as historical inevitabilities but as the very mechanisms through which societies achieve progress. This insight is pivotal in The Fourth Turning is Here, where Howe delineates how every generational cycle, approximately every eighty to a hundred years, culminates in a Fourth Turning—a period marked by profound societal upheaval and transformative change. This pattern, observed throughout history, suggests that crises are not random occurrences but part of a predictable rhythm that propels societies into new eras of organization and thought. By dissecting past Fourth Turnings, such as the Great Depression followed by World War II, Howe elucidates how these periods, despite their challenges, paved the way for significant societal advancements and shifts in collective consciousness.

The concept of renewal following crisis offers a silver lining to the daunting challenges that characterize Fourth Turnings. Howe argues that these periods, while tumultuous, are necessary for shedding outdated structures and ideologies that no longer serve society's needs. The chaos and uncertainty force a reevaluation of values, systems, and leadership, laying the groundwork for innovative solutions and new societal norms. This cycle of destruction and rebirth is crucial for societal evolution, ensuring that progress is not stagnant but dynamic, responding to the changing needs and insights of each generation. Thus, understanding the inevitability of crisis and renewal provides not just context for our current challenges but also hope for the potential that lies in overcoming them.

V. What is another top takeaway?

The Power of Collective Identity

In the throes of a Fourth Turning, Neil Howe posits the emergence of a strong collective identity as a central theme in navigating through crisis. This collective identity, forged in the fire of shared challenges and adversities, becomes a potent force for societal cohesion and action. Howe's analysis reveals how, during periods of significant upheaval, a sense of common purpose and destiny emerges, transcending individual differences and fostering a unified response to the crisis at hand. This phenomenon is evident in how societies have historically rallied together in times of war, economic depression, or social upheaval, setting aside internal divisions to address a common threat or to rebuild in the aftermath.

The strengthening of collective identity during a Fourth Turning is not merely a byproduct of shared struggle but a necessary foundation for the transformative changes that follow. This unified sense of purpose enables the mobilization of resources, the enactment of bold policies, and the collective endurance required to navigate through the crisis. Moreover, it facilitates the establishment of new norms and values that reflect the evolved societal consensus, ensuring that the renewal phase is anchored in a shared vision for the future. Thus, the power of collective identity is both a survival mechanism and a catalyst for the rebirth that characterizes the end of a Fourth Turning, underscoring its significance in Howe's analysis of historical cycles.

VI. What is the third top takeaway?

The Role of Leadership in Times of Crisis

Leadership during a Fourth Turning is a critical factor in determining the trajectory and outcome of the crisis period. Neil Howe emphasizes that the challenges of a Fourth Turning demand a type of leadership that is visionary, courageous, and capable of inspiring and uniting people towards a common goal. Leaders in these times are tasked with not just navigating the immediate crises but also laying the groundwork for the societal renewal that follows. This requires a deep understanding of the historical cycles and the societal undercurrents at play, as well as the foresight to enact policies and initiatives that will pave the way for a prosperous future.

Howe's discussion on leadership extends beyond the political sphere, recognizing the role of leaders in all sectors of society—including business, community, and cultural spheres—in shaping the response to the crisis. Effective leaders during a Fourth Turning are those who can articulate a compelling vision for the future, one that resonates with the collective identity and aspirations of the society. They must also exhibit adaptability, resilience, and the ability to make difficult decisions in the face of uncertainty. The success of a society in emerging from a Fourth Turning stronger and more united heavily relies on the presence of such leaders, making this a critical theme in understanding the dynamics of historical cycles.

VII. What is the fourth top takeaway?

The Intersection of Technology and Society

The relationship between technological advancement and societal change is a complex theme in The Fourth Turning is Here. Neil Howe explores how technology both shapes and is shaped by the cyclical patterns of history, particularly during Fourth Turnings. He posits that technological innovations can precipitate crises by disrupting established social and economic systems, thereby accelerating the onset of a Fourth Turning. For instance, the rapid advancement of information technology and artificial intelligence has profound implications for employment, privacy, and social interaction, challenging existing regulatory frameworks and societal norms.

However, technology also holds the key to resolving many of the crises that define a Fourth Turning. Howe highlights the dual role of technology as both a disruptor and a solution provider, capable of offering new ways to address complex challenges such as climate change, resource scarcity, and social inequality. The successful integration of technological solutions during a Fourth Turning requires visionary leadership and a collective willingness to adopt and adapt to new innovations. This theme underscores the importance of a balanced approach to technological development, one that considers its societal impacts and prioritizes technologies that offer sustainable solutions to the crises at hand.

VIII. What is the fifth top takeaway?

The Imperative of Adaptability

Adaptability emerges as a crucial virtue in The Fourth Turning is Here, both for individuals and societies as a whole. Neil Howe's analysis suggests that the ability to adapt—to embrace change rather than resist it—is a defining characteristic of societies that successfully navigate through Fourth Turnings and emerge stronger. This adaptability is not just about survival; it's about the willingness to rethink and remodel societal structures, values, and goals in response to the lessons learned during the crisis.

For individuals, adaptability involves cultivating resilience, openness to new ideas, and the flexibility to shift roles and skills as the situation demands. For societies, it means creating systems and institutions that are not rigidly fixed but are capable of evolving in response to new challenges and opportunities. This theme of adaptability is a call to action, urging us to view change not as a threat but as an integral part of the cycle of renewal that defines our collective journey through history. By embracing adaptability, we ensure that we are not just passive observers of the forces that shape our world but active participants in steering our society toward a brighter future.

IX. What does The X Project Guy have to say?

First, The Fourth Turning is Here is the nineteenth book out of the original list of the twenty most influential books driving The X Project. Of all the books, it was Howe and Strauss’ original 1996 book (and the first one covered), The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy, that moved me the most. As such, it was The Fourth Turning is Here, for which I had the greatest anticipation of reading. Upon reading it, I was compelled to do something which led to The X Project. If you are to read just one of the twenty books on my list, I would suggest this one.

Why? Why is this the most important book, and why was this the one that pushed me into creating The X Project? Aside from the top five takeaways summarized here, the one question not yet answered is when will this Fourth Turning crisis end? Howe suggests that the crisis will continue to build to a climax that is expected to occur in the late 2020s or perhaps as late as the early 2030s. Knowing what is likely to come and when gives us time to prepare, to understand what is happening as the crisis continues to unfold, to protect ourselves and our interests, and even to take advantage of the coming crisis as it impacts the ten areas of focus of The X Project.

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X. Why should you care?

The X Project expects a lot of volatility in various markets as we head toward the ultimate culmination of this Fourth Turning crisis and as our policymakers do everything possible to keep the system functioning, serving the status quo and responding to emergencies as they erupt - until the status quo ultimately breaks down and our policymaking leadership is replaced. Based on everything I know and largely influenced by the twenty books The X Project has been covering, this ultimate crisis is and will be all of the following ten types of crisis: