The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond
A summary of the book written by George Friedman (2020) - Article #16
In this 10 min article, The X Project will answer these questions:
I. Why this book, and what’s it about?
II. Who is the author?
III. How Popular is the Book?
IV. What is one of the top takeaways from the book?
V. What is another top takeaway from the book?
VI. What is the third top takeaway from the book?
VII. What is the fourth top takeaway from the book?
VIII. What is the fifth top takeaway from the book?
IX. What does The X Project Guy have to say?
X. Why should you care?
I. Why this book, and what’s it about?
A renowned geopolitical forecaster, George Friedman’s expertise shines through as he expertly dissects past patterns to predict future turmoil. He suggests that the 2020s will be a decade marked by intense social and political upheaval, paralleled only by events like the Great Depression and World War II in their transformative power. However, the storm is not the end but a necessary precursor to a period of stability and prosperity. Friedman's book is more than a forecast; it guides navigating the turbulent years ahead. It's crucial because it provides context to our times, grounding us in a historical perspective often lost in the 24-hour news cycle.
The Storm Before the Calm is significant for its predictions and deep dive into the mechanics of historical changes. It's a wake-up call to understand the undercurrents shaping our world, offering a unique lens to view current events and future prospects. By understanding the cycles that drive American history, we are better equipped to face the challenges and opportunities of the future.
II. Who is the author?
According to Amazon, “George Friedman is an internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs and the Founder and Chairman of Geopolitical Futures, an online publication that analyzes and predicts the international system.
Friedman is a New York Times bestselling author, and his most popular book, The Next 100 Years (2009), is kept alive by the prescience of its geopolitical predictions as they unfold in many countries. Friedman’s best-selling books include Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe, The Next Decade, America’s Secret War, The Future of War, and The Intelligence Edge. His books have been translated into over 20 languages.
Determined to discover those principles of logic that govern the world, George received his Ph.D. in government from Cornell University, granting him access to some of the most brilliant thinkers in the field… in the US and across the globe.
George’s unmatched analysis of geopolitics has led him to regularly brief military organizations and consult for Fortune 100 executives. He also founded the geopolitical intelligence consulting firm Stratfor in 1996 and left Stratfor in 2015 to start Geopolitical Futures.”
III. How Popular is the Book?
Here are the book’s rankings on Amazon:
IV. What is one of the top takeaways from the book?
The Institutional Cycle
Friedman’s first key takeaway is the inevitability of cycles in American history. He explains how the United States goes through predictable cycles of upheaval and renewal, deeply rooted in its socioeconomic and political fabric.
The first of two primary cycles he identifies is the institutional cycle, which occurs every 80 years and is marked by significant wars (Revolutionary War, Civil War, and World War II). This cycle determines the relationship between the federal government and the rest of American society. He explains that the severe stresses of war reveal the inherent weakness of the existing institutional structure and demand a new institutional system. According to Friedman’s cyclical model, he predicts an institutional shift will take place in 2025. The emergence of the United States as the sole global power following the collapse of the Soviet Union has left it unable to deal with the ensuing conflicts and uncertainty.
V. What is another top takeaway from the book?
The Socioeconomic Cycle
The second socio-economic cycle, occurring roughly every half-century, alters the relationship between American society and its economy. This cycle brings about a pervasive crisis that threatens the simultaneous collapse of societal and economic structures. During this cycle, previously effective policies start inflicting substantial damage and widening the political and cultural divide. Consequently, a fresh political culture takes shape, introducing an entirely new method to address the root economic problems, effectively displacing the established political leadership. Friedman interprets the political turmoil as a superficial manifestation of more profound socio-economic disruptions. In his view, the systemic forces, not politics, primarily drive these changes. He likens Presidents to mere indicators, not the architects of new cycles, but rather facilitators of their occurrence. America is in the initial phase of the latest socioeconomic cycle crisis.
These cycles dictate the rhythm of American life, shaping everything from politics to public sentiment. Understanding these cycles is crucial for anticipating the future and preparing for the inevitable changes they bring.
VI. What is the third top takeaway from the book?
The 2020s: A Decade of Disruption and Transformation as Cycles Converge
The second central theme focuses on the 2020s as a pivotal decade of disruption and transformation. The convergence of the institutional and socioeconomic cycles for the first time in history in the 2020s is highlighted as a critical period leading to destabilization but ultimately paving the way for a new era of prosperity. Friedman predicts significant challenges in the 2020s, including a crisis in technology and education, socioeconomic divides, and political instability. Friedman’s analysis covers the size and scope of the federal government, the future of marriage and the social contract, shifts in corporate structures, and new cultural trends based on longer life expectancies. These challenges are part of the cyclical process, leading to transformative changes in various sectors, including higher education and the socioeconomic landscape, akin to the changes seen during the Great Depression and World War II. This intense turmoil is necessary to pave the way for new systems and structures, setting the stage for the next phase of American prosperity and stability.
VII. What is the fourth top takeaway from the book?
The Role of War, Geopolitics and Technology
Friedman’s work underscores the significant role of war in triggering institutional shifts, revealing weaknesses in existing structures, and demanding the creation of new systems. Friedman delves into the role of technology and geopolitics in shaping these cycles. He argues that technological advancements and geopolitical shifts play critical roles in accelerating and influencing the nature of these cycles. The interplay between technological innovation and geopolitical dynamics is crucial in determining the outcome of the upheaval and the nature of the subsequent calm. Technological innovation, especially the microchip era, is also pivotal in American society and character. However, Friedman suggests that the transformative impact of such technologies is waning, indicating a need for new revolutionary technologies to drive future economic growth.
VIII. What is the fifth top takeaway from the book?
American Character and Exceptionalism and the Emergence of a New American Era
Friedman emphasizes the uniqueness of the American character, shaped by risk-taking, inventiveness, and a warrior spirit. This exceptionalism is a driving force behind the nation's ability to reinvent itself and overcome challenges. The concept of the American nation as an invention, constantly striving to create something new, is a recurring idea in Friedman’s analysis.
Finally, the most uplifting takeaway from Friedman’s book is the emergence of a new American era following the storm. He argues that the US is in the midst of a transition period rather than a state of decline and is going through a series of cycles that have permeated American history since its inception. Post-2020s, Friedman foresees a period of calm, stability, and prosperity, much like the eras following previous cycles. This new era will be characterized by renewed institutions, innovative socioeconomic policies, and a reinvigorated national spirit, heralding a promising future for America.
IX. What does The X Project Guy have to say?
George Friedman’s prior books, The Next 100 Years and Flashpoints, which The X Project reviewed, have proven to be prescient enough that we should seriously consider his future expectations. Just like Neil Howe’s The Fourth Turning, Friedman provides a wealth of well-told historical detail about the cycles that is quite compelling and convincing. And again, like Howe, similar conclusions, expectations, and timelines despite different approaches.
This book was published just before the Covid pandemic emerged, before the economic lockdowns and dislocations occurred and before the government took on trillions of dollars in debt and new money creation. However, the Global Financial and the trillions of dollars in debt and zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) were well known to Friedman. His assertions about root economic problems unleashing systemic forces to bring about change sound similar to the unsustainable debt and deficits throughout eight centuries of history that led to financial crises in This Time is Different.
Finally, it is interesting that Friedman writes about the interplay between technology and geopolitics and the need for new revolutionary technologies to drive future economic growth. I don’t think artificial intelligence (AI) is mentioned in the book, and I don’t think I was thinking, reading, or talking about AI in 2020. Now, AI is everywhere, and I have been reading about its geopolitics lately (perhaps an article soon on the topic).
X. Why should you care?
Suppose this book, along with the other books mentioned (and linked) in this article, plus FED UP by
, Peter Zeihan’s books The Accidental Superpower and The Absent Superpower, and the following eleven books to be summarized by The X Project over the next couple of months are correct. In that case, there are two overarching themes that most of them share and that you should expect:The United States has a bright and prosperous future - over the longer term.
In the shorter term (approximately the next ten years), the United States (and the world) will experience a lot of chaos, turmoil, and extreme change.
It is because of the latter that The X Project exists. There are and will be extreme risks. But there are and will be powerful opportunities. The X Project is here to consume dozens of hours of expert-generated content per week, distill, summarize, and synthesize all that content to help you know what you need to know. The X Project is here to help you be prepared and informed so you can protect against the risks and take advantage of the opportunities.
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